Tesla Performance Recap: A Comprehensive Look
Detailed Examination of the Last Five Quarters' Earnings and Strategic Milestones
Next Quarters Estimates:
Q4 2023 Key Highlights:
Record Production and Deliveries:
Approximately 1.8 million vehicles delivered in 2023.
Q4 production rate nearly 2 million cars per year.
Model Y and Financial Stability:
Model Y became the best-selling vehicle globally.
Strong free cash flow of $4.4 billion.
Energy Storage and AI Advancements:
15 gigawatt-hours of batteries delivered.
Leading in AI inference efficiency.
Future Focus:
Emphasis on next-gen vehicles, energy storage, and full self-driving tech.
Plans for additional factories in Mexico and outside North America.
Challenges and Strategies:
Navigating high interest rates and inflation.
Focused on cost reduction and auto gross margin improvement.
Q3 2023 Key Highlights:
Production Efficiency:
Factory upgrades improving cost per vehicle.
Targeting around 1.8 million vehicle deliveries for the year.
AI and Autopilot:
Over 0.5 billion miles driven with FSD Beta.
Significant AI investments, including a 10,000 GPU cluster.
Energy Storage Growth:
Deployed 4 gigawatt-hours in Q3.
Energy division becoming the highest-margin business.
Cybertruck and Other Developments:
Challenges in Cybertruck production.
Continued rise in R&D expenses.
Q2 2023 Key Highlights:
Record Performance:
Record vehicle production and deliveries.
$25 billion revenue.
Product and Service Expansion:
Model Y sustained global top-selling position.
Over 50,000 Supercharger connectors globally.
Financial Strategy:
Operating margin of about 10%.
Focus on cost reduction and manufacturing efficiencies.
Future Projects:
Anticipation for high demand in future robotaxi products.
Continued progress in 4680 cell production.
Q1 2023 Key Highlights:
Market Position and Sales:
Model Y top-selling in Europe and the U.S.
Focus on high volumes over high margins.
Operational Efficiency:
Significant price reductions while maintaining strong margins.
Record 4 gigawatt-hour energy storage deployment.
Technological Advancements:
Continued development of Cybertruck, aiming for Q3 delivery event.
Expansion of Supercharger network, open to other EVs.
Investment and Growth:
Emphasis on investments in future platforms, cell production, and AI.
Q4 2022 Key Highlights:
Financial Performance:
Delivered over 1.3 million cars.
$12.5 billion net income, $7.5 billion free cash flow.
17% operating margin.
Production and Demand:
Raised Model Y prices due to high demand.
Strong order backlog, twice the rate of production.
Technology and Safety:
FSD Beta deployed to 400,000 North American customers.
Achieved a 1,000 cars/week rate with 4680 cells.
Future Plans and Expansion:
Focus on manufacturing technology and volume growth.
Cybertruck production anticipated to start in summer, volume production in 2024
Other Financial Data:
Market Data:
52 Week High: $299.29
52 Week Low: $152.37
Avg. 3 Month Volume: 117.75 M
5 Yr Beta: 2.32
Short Interest: 2.5%
Capital Structure:
Market Cap (MM): $580,566.41
Enterprise Value (MM): $557,677.41
Shares Outstanding: 3,178.92 M
LTM Net Debt (MM): ($23,864)
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA: (1.77x)
Efficiency:
LTM Gross Margin: 18.2%
LTM EBIT Margin: 9.2%
LTM ROA: 5.9%
LTM ROE: 27.4%
LTM ROIC: 12.9%
Growth:
Fwd 2-Yr Rev. CAGR: 19.3%
Fwd 2-Yr EBITDA CAGR: 20.6%
Fwd 2-Yr EPS CAGR: 21.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR: 45.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR: 40.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR: 61.1%
Valuation:
Street Target Price: $233.26
NTM EV/Revenues: 5.06x
NTM EV/EBITDA: 32.20x
NTM P/E: 54.83x
NTM MC/FCF: 87.28x
LTM EV/Revenues: 5.76x
LTM EV/Gross Profit: 31.58x
LTM P/E: 42.47x
LTM P/BV: 9.28x
LTM P/NCAV: 113.01x
Return Ratios:
Return on Assets %: 5.1%
Return on Capital %: 12.0%
Return On Equity %: 53.8%
Return on Common Equity %: 54.6%
Margin Analysis:
Gross Profit Margin %: 17.6%
SG&A Margin %: 5.1%
EBITDA Margin %: 13.1%
EBITA Margin %: 8.2%
EBIT Margin %: 8.2%
Income From Continuing Operations Margin %: 31.6%
Net Income Margin %: 31.5%
Normalized Net Income Margin %: 5.4%
Net Avail. For Common Margin %: 31.5%
Levered Free Cash Flow Margin %: 5.6%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Margin %: 5.7%
Asset Turnover:
Asset Turnover: 0.94x
Fixed Assets Turnover: 2.29x
Receivables Turnover: 32.44x
Inventory Turnover: 6.06x
Working Capital Turnover: 4.82x
Short Term Liquidity:
Current Ratio: 1.73x
Quick Ratio: 1.13x
Op Cash Flow to Current Liab: 0.61x
Overall Trends and Observations:
Financial Growth and Stability: Tesla consistently reported strong financial performance, with increasing revenues, net income, and free cash flow across the quarters.
Production and Delivery Milestones: Record-breaking production and deliveries were a recurring theme, with a significant emphasis on the Model Y's success.
Advancements in Technology: Continued development in FSD, AI, and energy storage solutions, showcasing Tesla's commitment to innovation.
Future Expansion and Challenges: Plans for factory expansions and next-generation vehicle manufacturing indicate a focus on growth. However, challenges such as production difficulties and macroeconomic conditions were also acknowledged.
Strategic Focus: Tesla's strategy appears to be centered around increasing production volume, reducing costs, and investing heavily in future technologies and platforms, particularly in AI and energy storage.